The downside target we predicted for markets is reached. What’s next: a big crash or recovery?
It’s 5 weeks ago when we said that markets would start a correction. This is the article A Reasonable NYSE Target For March of 2023 and a few quotes:
The market transitioned from a bearish rounded (topping) pattern to a bullish rounded (reversal) pattern on Nov 9th, 2022. In essence, the ‘breakout price point’ is the one that we believe will be tested again, somewhere in the next few weeks.
We continued:
The small orange circle on the chart is the price point that we believe will be tested. In terms of timing, somewhere in the first week of March is this price point coinciding with the rounded pattern. Whenever two dominant patterns or trendlines coincide, you better mark that day in your calendar. Our expectation is that a pullback to 14700-14900 is a real possibility, in the next 2 to 4 weeks from now.
This is the chart which we published on Feb 11th, 2023, with the orange circle being our price target:
Last week, we said that the Markets Are Close To Touching First Downside Target
We believe that the 14600 target will be reached next week. The market might overshoot this target, but selling should stop around 14400 in order qualify as an inverted head & shoulders pattern. Invalidation: if 13400 is breached, it won’t be pretty!
This is the chart which we published last week:
Fast forward to today. We see that our price target was met, right within the 5 day time window that we forecasted. What’s next?
It’s really very simple: this current level must hold in order to qualify as a bullish reversal. In fact, IF this level holds, it will confirm the rounded pattern which is a bullish pattern that has a bullish outcome.
However, if this NYSE Composite Index continues to move lower, it will become very vulnerable. The bullish pattern will be at risk.
There is still a possibility that 14400 approximately might be touched without really breaking the bullish setup. You can see that a very fine green rising lining is crossing 14.4k right now. It might be the ultimate target of this NYSE Index.
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