Readers vividly remember how hot the copper market was just 2 months ago. That is when we wrote that copper’s chart looks spectacular as the metal attempted for the sixth time to break above $2.80.
However, copper (COPPER) did not manage to go higher, even after so many breakout attempts. As it became clear that there was not sufficient bullish power in the copper market, we recommended readers to carefully look at the copper chart which suggested to remain on the sidelines. That is how it goes: if a market is not able to go higher, investors better wait and focus on other markets in the meantime.
Our call was correct, as, since then, copper was not able to go higher. It only lost value, and it seems that process is accelerating now. The chart below shows that the recent decline is picking up steam, and that copper is setting a series of lower lows.
Visibly, the chart suggests to keep a close eye on the $2.50 level (purple circle on the chart). That is exactly where the trendline of the bear market channel runs. Last November, the trendline was broken to the upside. Right now, it is the breakdown level.
In other words, if the price of copper breaks below $2.50, it goes back in its bear market channel, in which case its tactical bull market would end.
Worst case, if copper falls till $2.00, we recall readers to check our copper price forecast for 2017 for important bear market price points and decision points.
Are we saying the bear market in copper continues? Not yet, there is still a chance that $2.50 will provide support. Investors should wait for confirmation. Copper tends to move in an aggressive way, so it’s better to wait until a new trend is confirmed, as there is plenty of upside or downside (depending on a bull or bear market).
Copper miner FCX should underperform the rest of the market if copper goes below $2.50.