Silver moved sharply higher today. That was certainly no surprise to us, as silver is bouncing from a very important price point. The silver price chart since the 2011 top shows the importance of its current price level.
As seen on below chart, silver has been moving in a falling trend channel since it peaked in 2011. Price trends have been consistent until June of this year. At that point, silver broke out of its channel, and telegraphed a potential new bull market. However, gold did not, and it was for a warning sign that silver’s breakout could be false.
The coming days and weeks will be the ultimate test for silver. Any break below $15.50 will bring silver back in its falling channel. That would be extremely bad news for silver bulls.
However, if silver remains above $15.50, we would see a strong divergence between gold (falling channel since 2011) and silver (breakout from a falling channel since 2011).
On silver’s very long term chart, which we showed in How To Determine The Future Price Of Silver, we do not see much support until the $14.75 level. At the same time, the long term gold and silver mining chart shows a very significant support level at current prices.
All in all, we have an inconsistent view in the precious metals complex. Gold has little support right now on all its charts, silver is testing an important level in its bear market but has no support from a long term perspective, miners are at support on their long term chart. Given that gold mostly leads new bull markets, we would conclude that precious metals have a bearish bias. However, IF a turnaround would occur, it really has to be at current levels. The first days and weeks of 2017 will be very important for the first part of the year.
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