We are covering this topic for more than a year, but it may be finally becoming a fact as of this week: the uranium market is turning its 7-year bear market into a new bull market in 2018. A bit more than a year ago we identified that Uranium Stock UEC is preparing a bullish breakout. We followed up towards the end of last year with our Uranium Forecast for 2018 in which we wrote that “it is fair to expect solid gains from this sector but one needs to be able to hold, be patient and potentially stomach some steep declines.”
A new bull market is brewing for a while in the uranium market. The easiest way to identify the start of this new bull market is a breakout of the falling 7-year bear market channel on the chart. And it may be that this week was THE week that kicked off, officially at least, the new bull market in uranium, as uranium stock leader UEC (UEC) breaks out.
Uranium stock market leader UEC kicking off bull market 2018?
Several months ago we published Uranium Stocks In 2018: Pressure Cooker Ready To Explode in which we wrote:
Admittedly, we are starting to get excited, presumably too early. Be that as it may, we remain focused on the charts, and they indicate that we need to wait just a little bit longer before we have a breakout, and even longer for a confirmed breakout.
We were at least honest to admit our excitement came in too early.
But the more important point about the uranium market is the ongoing breakout in Uranium Energy Corp (symbol UEC), as mentioned above.
From previous writings we know that “UEC between $1.25 and $2.10 is in a good spot to go for a huge breakout and become the outperformer in the uranium mining space once uranium miners become bullish.”
By zooming in though we see that $1.70 is the line in the sand for UEC. That’s where resistance of the bear market kicks in. But it’s also the point that UEC left behind this week. In other words, a breakout has started.
Now why we feel very strong that ‘this time is for real’ is because of the chart setup. Look at the red circle which was the first breakout attempt, last December, but eventually failed. The shape was more of a small peak which suggests there were lots of sellers between $1.50 and $2.00 at that moment in time.
However, today, we see a totally different shape. There is a stronger formation between the $1.50 and $1.70 area which suggests buying has been accumulating, and selling has been fading, in that price range. Interestingly, that’s right at the resistance level of the falling bear market channel.
So momentum is much stronger today than it was 6 months ago, with the first breakout attempt, is how we interpret this market situation purely by reading the chart.
As UEC seems to be decisively breaking out it will certainly lead the uranium stock market higher. We want to see continued strength in the next 3 to 4 weeks, and by no means should UEC’s stock price fall below $1.70 in June. That’s when we will know for sure that the uranium stock market will be in a new bull market.
This is another example of how following specific trends, and being patient, is the key recipe for successful investing.