A sea of red in markets in the last few days resulted in panic selling, and vice versa. Some of our favorite stock markets corrected sharply, one of which being the India stock market (Nifty 50 index). With so big of a loss this must be bearish, right?
Not too fast. As always, we prefer to stick to the facts, not to emotions. If anything, emotions are the biggest enemy of investors’ success.
The only way to stay factual in the current environment is to stick to the charts. The Nifty50 in particular has a great chart setup, and you really do not need a PhD to understand what it is signaling.
The Nifty50 chart has done something very simple: it corrected from the top of the rising trend (channel) to the bottom of the same trend (channel). How can anyone believe this is a sell signal? It’s not, at least not yet. Until proven otherwise the Nifty50 chart says that Indian stocks are in an uptrend, and, consequently, (strongly) bullish in 2018.
The point we are trying to make is that news items like this one the recovery in India’s stock markets rests on a shaky foundation should NOT affect you, but they are more than you think. This is not a factual data point, a chart, however, is a factual data point as it is the only data point that reflects real behavior (buy and sell activity). Almost all the rest is opinion, or, in other words, noise.
Even in the case the Nifty50 falls below the rising channel there is mega support at 9000 points, which, if tested, still implies Indian stocks are bullish though not strongly bullish. Investors better think twice before selling this market.
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