One of the major themes of InvestingHaven is that only 1 pct of the news is relevant to investors, if not less. The rest is noise. There is no exception, all markets fall under this rule of thumb, also crude oil (OIL). As far as crude oil goes our short term forecast of 80 USD per barrel seems to be in the cards regardless of what mainstream media says.
Case in point: If we believe mainstream media it should be that OPEC wants to keep the price of oil around 60 USD per barrel while continue to increase production (source). What should happen with price if this news is ‘accurate’.
From a fundamental perspective it should cause the oil price to drop more than increase, right? Wrong, says the crude oil price chart.
And this is exactly the reason why InvestingHaven’s team stopped following the mainstream news feeds a long time ago, and start with the chart.
Our monthly crude oil price chart shows that the rising trend is still intact! This is fully in line with our recent writings:
The monthly crude oil price chart visibly has a pattern that suggests crude’s short term price forecast is 80 USD.
The trend is pretty strong, and that is likely the ‘reason’ why the recent retracement from the 65 area only tested the 60-62 support zone after which is continued its uptrend convincingly. Yes, that was exactly when the news headlines became bearish crude oil, but, again, that’s worthless unless you apply the ‘start with the chart’ principle.
InvestingHaven’s research team feels that crude oil is slowly and gradually creeping towards the next resistance level of 80-85. This may materialize by the end of 2019. It will definitely, once materialized, be another volatile zone, and the road towards this level will be characterized by endless whipsaws.
As long as the exploration of oil continues, we see the crude oil price going up.
We will update again when price hit the next resistance or any new circumstances which may develop.
This is a research driven blog post not meant to contain a buy or sell market call.