The secular silver market breakout was confirmed a while ago, the silver secular uptrend is in progress.
Related – When Exactly Will The Price Of Silver Start A Rally To $50?
It took silver a long time characterized by a really long consolidation which lasted more than 3 years (2021 – 2023). The breakout happened, even on the secular timeframes.
Silver completing a bullish basing pattern
In general, one of the most powerful chart structures is the bullish basing pattern.
In essence, a bullish basing pattern is a long consolidation in which key support levels are respected. The consolidation is orderly, it occurs after a big rise. Remember, the longer the consolidation, the higher the upside potential.
Silver’s basing pattern has all these characteristics:
- A big rise in the period June/July of 2020.
- A long consolidation since August of 2020.
- Key support levels around 20 USD/oz were respected.
- The only ‘violation’ of key support occurred late summer 2022. As seen on the chart, this ‘violation’ morphed into a series of 3 bullish micro-patterns, right below 20 USD/oz.
In sum, the daily silver price chart has a very bullish looking.
September 4th, 2024 – As markets head silver’s seasonally strong period October to April, it looks like silver is preparing its next leg higher. The breakout stalled at the highest breakout level which is 28.80 USD/oz, right after confirming the 26.60 USD/oz breakout point. However, this ongoing pattern looks like a short to mid-term consolidation in the context of a secular bullish reversal. Silver looks great!
Silver market breakout: April 2nd, 2024, a day for history books
Below is the same silver daily price chart, with our annotations. Readers should pay attention to the timeline with the green horizontal lines confirming a perfect symmetric setup of 2x 414 days on the time axis:
- The falling silver trendline since the 2021 top – as seen, silver is now for several consecutive days above the falling trendline – in a way, this is a breakout.
- The bullish reversal structure since April of 2022 – as seen, the reversal structure, the green shaded area, is now complete.
If we combine both ‘chart events’, we can conclude that silver has broken out of its multi-year downtrend. In other words, this is a breakout on medium-term timeframes. This silver breakout is confirmed as there are 8 daily candles above the breakout level.
Further to the conclusion from the previous chart in the previous section, we can now say that the silver chart confirmed an epic breakout.
September 4th, 2024 – The chart below shows the point of breakout, early April 2024. Interestingly, the same price point is being tested at the time of updating this article. No surprise, the $27.70 – $28.80 are is the last hurdle before the secular breakout turns into a secular uptrend continuation.
The silver market breakout on its secular timeframe
Now, let’s turn to silver’s secular timeframe. We use the weekly silver price chart to analyze secular trends including a possible secular silver market breakout.
The annotations on this chart are important. The Fibonacci retracement level that truly matters is the 50% retracement level which comes in around 24.50 USD/oz.
As seen, silver moved above the falling trendline which connects the 2011 peak with the highs since 2020. Moreover, silver is now above its 50% retracement level. What is truly unique is that silver is now above both patterns on its secular chart – this has not happened before.
Moreover, and this might be the proverbial elephant in the room, the triangle visible on silver’s secular breakout is nothing short of beautiful, hence powerful. Remember, the longer a chart pattern, the stronger. This means that the power unleashed by the silver market breakout is tremendous.
September 4th, 2024 – Why did silver’s breakout stall? Because the seasonally weak months of August & September, as explained in our silver seasonality article.
Conclusion – Silver breakout is solidified
With each passing month, the silver breakout is becoming stronger:
- The breakout point on all timeframes is the same – 26 USD/oz.
- Silver’s breakout on the daily timeframe was confirmed once it decisively moved above 26.20 USD/oz on a 5 to 8 day closing basis..
- Silver’s secular breakout on its weekly chart was confirmed once it decisively moved above 26 USD/oz on a 5 to 8 week closing basis.
Silver’s chart setup has everything to qualify as a confirmed breakout.
September 4th, 2024 – We are confident that silver will continue its breakout. We expect silver price readings well above $30 an Ounce in the first half of 2025.
Anecdotal evidence: more upside potential in silver
Fun fact – you would have expected Wall Street Silver to be in overdrive with the ongoing silver breakout but nothing is further from the truth. If this would mean that the silver breakout is not being recognized and respected, it would be the ultimate confirmation that silver has much more upside potential, from an anecdotal perspective. That’s because Wall Street Silver’s success coincided with a major top in the silver market in 2021.
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