In our market forecast published 5 months ago Which Precious Metal To Buy In 2021 we did predict that platinum would be the best precious metal of 2021. We did expect palladium to do well, but we said back then in our Palladium Price Forecast 2021 that March 15th, 2021 would be a pivot point. Palladium decided to breakout on March 16th, 2021. Because of this it is very likely that palladium will outperform platinum in 2021.
The palladium chart says it all.
The monthly chart is truly impressive. More importantly, it is also orderly.
What we observe on palladium’s monthly chart is this:
- A very long term basing pattern in the form of a bullish W reversal that took 20 years to complete (1998-2018).
- A breakout in 2018 when palladium cleared 1,000 USD/oz.
- A fast rise in 2019, followed by a crash when the Corona crash hit the world.
- A 12 month orderly reversal since then.
- A breakout in April of 2021, and it started on March 16th, 2021.
- New all time highs were printed last week.
The most important thing: the green channel visible on the next chart. Why is this important? Because it shows a clear structure in which the bull run is happening. Pay special attention to the peaks and troughs in the last 24 months: they all perfectly fit the channel. This increases the confidence of this bull run, and also makes it easy to spot exit points.
And here is one article out of the endless stream of financial news that has some sort of relevance: Supply deficit sends palladium price to all-time high. Anecdotally, we would say that Tsaklanos his 1/99 Investing Principles apply to financial news reporting: only 1% of news items have some sort of relevance for investors, the remaining 99% is noise for investors.
In our Momentum Investing portfolio we initiated a position in a palladium explorer/developer. It also has activities in the platinum market. If the strong bull market in palladium and platinum continues we expect this position to double and even triple.