Crude oil price (OIL) is hard to forecast because there are so many factors that could influence its movement. Many of those factors are political, have to do with how certain events are perceived: The interpretation of political and economical events in the middle east, China, Opec’s decisions, and oil inventories.
If you read financial media, you can find everyday a story about how Crude oil is Bearish and the same day, how Crude oil is Bullish. That’s what happens when you build your analysis on stories or perception. It’s hard to identify the long term trend that could yield the most rewards with the least risks if managed properly.
Finding those important trends early on is something we are fascinated with at InvestingHaven as it can give us and our readers an edge when analyzing markets and planning for the next position.
So as tricky as it is to understand the next move in oil prices, we managed to provide our readers with a spot on outlook in our Crude Oil forecast in 2017 . Our Crude Oil Forecast for 2018 was published 4 months ago and the targets are already achieved:
Recently, the InvestingHaven team notified all subscribers on the gradual upwards movement towards 60-61 dollar a barrel, and looking at the current chart, I am personally holding tight to my stance that oil will reach to about 60 – 62 a barrel before deciding its future direction.
We highly suspect that if price of crude oil will achieve 60-62 USD, later in 2018. That is our crude oil forecast for 2018.
Therefore, we thought this is a good time to provide our perspective on Crude oil for the rest of 2018. Especially that today, Crude oil has been falling during the last 48 hours and Bearish outlooks are all over the news.
Decision time for Crude Oil Price
The chart below tracks Crude Oil price since 1982. it shows how crude oil has been making higher lows since the bottom from 2016. A possible retest of the 55 USD area is possible and if it holds, Crude oil price could make it to the middle of the rising channel.
In fact, as long as Crude oil trades above 52USD, it is still Bullish and will likely head upwards. If it breaks below 50 USD, it would be bearish and we could see the price drop towards the bottom of the channel where there is a mega support area at 40 USD.
Investors need to keep in mind though that this might not happen so fast as these trends take time to unfold so patience and sticking to the chart is key. So to answer the question in our title and if Crude oil prices are Bearish, the answer is not yet, as long as the price is holding above 50 USD,