A very large number of investors continue to be fearful about a stock market crash. The traces of the epic ...
In our category 2022 forecasts we don’t have a lot articles yet. That’s because our forecasts mostly look 18 months ahead in time.
It is nearly impossible to forecast trends 3 years in advance.
Still we want to do an attempt to set out a few forecasts, though very high level.
First of all we believe 2022 will be a bad year for stocks.
That’s because stock markets move in cycles: from RISK ON to RISK OFF and so on. 2018 and 2019 were years in a RISK OFF cycle. Consequently we expect 2020 and 2021 to be RISK ON years for stocks. If this cycle continues (which is an assumption of our 2022 forecasts) then we expect 2022 to be a bearish year for stocks.
Consequently Treasuries will outperform. Preparing to hold Treasuries as part of our 2022 forecast is something we will monitor closely.
Note that we need a confirmation of all our assumptions before they come true. So never take a forecast especially 3 years ahead in time as something that is set in stone.
In the above outlined circumstances there will be some select currencies that will outperform. We expect 2022 to be a very turbulent year in terms of currencies.
Especially gold may do well in such market conditions though this has to be confirmed. Gold has also seen instances in which it sold off when things became very turbulent, think of the year 2008.
The unknown is crypto. Based on our current forecasts crypto should do very well in 2020 and 2021. However, with Bitcoin being increasingly connected (through futures) to the rest of global markets we expect Bitcoin and crypto to sell off in market conditions outlined above.
We need to revise the above as we get closer to the year 2022. Hence we recommend to keep a close eye on our 2022 forecast.
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