Last month we said that silver stocks are a screaming buy. This came after we indicated that First Majestic Silver in particular would provide leverage in the silver market based on our bullish silver stocks forecast 2019. All this assumes that our silver price forecast 2019 comes true. Today, we get a confirmation from the silver market that our predictions are underway, with a first easy target of 7 USD which represents a rally of 20 pct.
Given the ridiculously low valuations of silver stocks we continue to believe that they still are at a juicy entry point. As said recently “we believe that silver stocks will be the outperformers in the months and maybe years to come. We expect silver stocks to do very well as long as the $14 level in spot silver is respected.”
Furthermore when it comes to the silver stocks segment in general we indicated that we are closely watching the silver stocks SIL ETF to rise to 32.5 points, at a minimum, and potentially even to 42.50. Note that halfway the trading session today, December 18th, SIL ETF rose to 25.2 points. This presents us with an upside potential of almost 30 pct at a minimum.
In particular First Majestic Silver looks very juicy, and its chart suggests an easy rally of 20 pct is underway now.
Our baseline scenario is that First Majestic Silver (symbol AG) rises from $5.6 today to $7.0 in the coming weeks. Again, this is the base case, not the bullish case.
Much will depend on what happens at $7.0.
From a chart perspective there is a fair chance that $7.0 will be broken to the upside. Why? Because of the giant bull flag that is arising on its chart, and we see 2 important characteristics:
- Its horizontal support at $5 did hold strong, after 3 tests in 2018, this is bullish.
- Its falling channel was tested 3 times at support (see touch #1 till #3 on below chart) and twice at resistance. The third touch might be the game changer, and it is likely going to be the upside test that will bring an end to the falling channel.
This would push First Majestic Silver to its bullish scenario. “Once above 7.00 USD it will probably easily ride to 17 USD. AG is a great play on the silver price: long term very bullish once above 7.50 USD,” is what we wrote. We will know in a couple of weeks if this bullish scenario is going to play out.