The market is very close to invalidate the bearish case. Auch, those bears out there, they will get hurt in 2023. That’s what happens if you follow media and experts as opposed to charts and data points. Our 2023 forecasts were clear: there are bullish reversal happening, not bearish reversals. Moreover, we shared lots of factual data that confirmed no market crash in 2023 and that 2022 is not 2008. Premium members received many more detailed charts in Must-See Charts: Q1/2023 Will Be Crucial, 7 Timing Conclusions, 2008 Comparisons.
Sentiment was horrible in 2022. The consensus view was bearish. Suddenly, ‘everyone and his uncle’ became stock market forecasters. One of the common themes was the ‘analogy’ between the charts in 2008 and 2022, suggesting a big move lower was imminent.
Not so on ‘our charts’, they did not suggest a bearish setup like in 2008.
That’s maybe because we are not here to sell clicks and collect likes and re-tweets. We are here to bring the best possible chart and market analysis. Big difference!
On the day SPX was ‘breaking down’ and the bears got excited about their bearish forecasts, we came out and wrote: The Market Will Not Move 50% Lower Contrary To What The Gurus Are Telling You (October 14th). The market moved higher since the moment we published our article.
Being contrarian requires a lot of courage which is only possible if you get your charts right!
That said, here is the ultimate data point that will confirm if and when the bearish case will be for the dustbin: VIX. As seen, VIX tested the 19 level 3 times in 2022. It is now testing it again.
Frankly, this chart looks bearish to us. This implies bullish for markets.
Whenever VIX falls below 19 points, next week or in the coming months, the bearish case is invalidated and confirmed.
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