We have published quite some 2023 market forecasts. The most important pieces include our expectation that there will not be a stock market crash in 2023 as well as our ultra bullish lithium forecast and bullish silver forecast.
Most of our forecasts are based on inflation expectations and a resumption of its uptrend:
No Stock Market Crash In 2023!
We do not expect a stock market crash in 2023. We see a fresh new start for markets in 2023.
Markets had plenty of opportunity to crash in 2022. While the market came down a lot, it did not crash. What happened is a rotation between sectors on a scale that was never seen before.
In our public post “no stock market crash in 2023” we looked at the market from several angles and came to a consistent conclusion:
- Volatility has been persistent but not explosive.
- An epic market rotation dominated markets, not a crash.
- Inflation will decelerate fast in 2023.
- Inflation expectations are in a bottoming process.
- SPX is in the process of printing a bullish reversal.
- S&P 500 forward earnings sideways, not crashing.
- Market breadth already reached crash levels in 2022.
- Contrarian readings in the bull vs. bear ratio suggest a buy opportunity (not sell).
- The consensus expectation is a hard landing, the market rarely follows the consensus.
Everything suggest that 2023 will morph into a year of stagflation: low growth rates combined with inflationary effects. While the Fed and other monetary policy makers are fighting inflation, they will at a certain point in 2023 stop the fight. That’s when inflation expectations will continue to rise, though in a moderate (normal) way.
What’s key for success in 2023 is that we must be invested in high growth segments and markets. Stagflation investing suggests there is a lot of low growth and exceptionally some high growth markets.
We derived a few 2023 stock market conclusions out of the Dow Jones 100 year chart analysis:
- We expect that the Dow Jones will work around 3 really important price points in 2023 and 2024: 28.8k as support (on a 3 to 5 day closing basis), 31.7k as a pivotal point, 35k points as the top of the channel early 2023.
- This view suggests that a topping pattern is in the making. However, the rally to the top of the channel was not as steep as back in 20ies and 90ies. The recovery after the Corona crash was steep, but the Dow Jones has been slowly making its way higher since 2017. So, this suggests that the Dow Jones might consolidate for a while as opposed to crashing similar to 1929 or 2001/2.
- We do expect that the Dow Jones will continue to consolidate heading into 2023. We see 29.6k as good support (on a 3 to 5 day closing basis) and expect the top of the channel to provide resistance. Note that the top of the channel will have risen in the meantime, so by January of 2023 the top of channel will be around 35k points.
- Very, very important note: in March of 2021, the Dow Jones cleared the top of its 100 year channel around 31.7k points. This price point will continue to carry an above average importance, going forward.
A Silver Price Forecast For 2023
Silver tends to move higher when stocks are bullish. All this tends to happen when inflation expectations are on the rise.
The price of silver will move to our first bullish target of 34.70 USD in 2023 after which we can confidently predict ATH in the price of silver.
As seen on the longest timeframe, the silver price chart over 50 years, there is a giant cup and handle in the making. This is a strongly bullish pattern, one that might take two more years to truly explode.
We predict 2023 to have one strong bullish cycle (typically 3 months) which will bring gold close to $2,000.
Lithium Forecast: Lithium Stocks Will Be Wildly Bullish In 2023
Because of the coming deficit in the lithium market, the booming lithium price and softening conditions in broad markets, we believe that lithium stocks are the place to be in 2023.
Our lithium forecast 2023 is strongly bullish. Lithium stocks will be the place to be in 2023 but stock selection will be key to success.
Based on our research we have a very bullish graphite stocks forecast for 2023. We believe that graphite stocks are deeply undervalued.
- Cryptocurrency prediction 2023: A bullish bias with multiple ‘golden’ weeks.
- Unicorns in Web3
- Focus on Layer1
- The great return of XRP in 2023
- Meme coin prediction of the year 2023: Luna Classic
Our previous XRP price forecasts are still valid, they are simply delayed. We see XRP move back to 3 USD in 2023 followed by 9 USD.
We are bullish on MATIC in 2023 with a MATIC price forecast of 2.00 – 2.44 USD provided secular support is respected.